The upcoming vote on the Paradigm Proposal is a wake-up call for the City of Fairfax.  This will be the first modern development in the “Mega-Block” bounded by Chain Bridge Road, Armstrong Street, Sager Avenue, and University Drive.  Many developments are planned to follow.

 

​The Paradigm Proposal, its scale and impact, should be considered by the Planning Commission and City Council in terms of its inherent attributes as a high-density apartment building on the Davies Property, but also in terms of its effects as the first new development in the “Mega-Block”.  These bodies of governance shouldn’t  “just look at the one that is front of you right now” but should consider the bigger, longer-term issues.  Where is this development taking us, and is this the direction the City wants to go?

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The list of recent and proposed development in the north-south corridor along Chain Bridge Road and University Drive, in or adjacent to the "Mega-Block," includes: 

 

• The Paradigm Proposal for the Davies Property at 4131 Chain Bridge Road;

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• Proposal to combine the properties at 4085, 4101, and 4103 Chain Bridge Road for The Christopher;

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• Proposal for 4025 & 4031 Chain Bridge Road combined with 4020 University Drive for Ox Hill Block A;

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• Proposal for nearby 4021-4031 University Drive for Ox Hill Block B;

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• Future development of the property at 4117 Chain Bridge Road (now the BB&T property);

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• Future development of 4084 University Drive;

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• A new Fire Station #3 and possibly a new parking garage on the City Property at 4087 University Drive;

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• Increased density of buildings in the County Judicial Center on Chain Bridge Road.

 

Beyond the "Mega Block," but contributing to congestion in the Chain Bridge Road / University Drive north-south corridor, other high-density developments exist or are planned inside or adjacent to the City.  These include:  ​

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• University One, aka The Main on University, just outside southern City limits on Chain Bridge Road; 

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• Planned AT&T development just outside the northern City limits on Chain Bridge Road;

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• City Center West on Main Street;

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• Fairfax County low-income housing replacing the Burkholder Building by the Post Office; 

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• Northfax Chain Bridge; 

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• Northfax West;

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• Willow Wood;

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• The Flats on University Drive;

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• Two future apartment developments planned for Courthouse Plaza;

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• Future development replacing Layton Hall Apartments;

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• Future development of public athletic venues for GMU west of Chain Bridge Road.

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A quick informal assessment of disparate documents about the recent, proposed, and possible development in the "Mega-Block," and directly adjacent to it, shows it could eventually equal 1400 dwelling units and 2500 parking spots.  In the larger Chain Bridge/University Drive north-south corridor (inside the City and out) could total 5300 dwelling units and 8400 parking places.    

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What is the cumulative impact of all this development on traffic in the City of Fairfax?  The answer is obvious:  this scale of high-density development will create immense congestion on the road network through Old Town by increasing volume and the number of intersections along the main roads. 

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Considerations

 

Before it is too late, the City of Fairfax should consider developing the entire “Mega-Block” as a coherent and balanced whole, rather than as a series of independent proposals that will crowd all available space.  If the Paradigm Proposal is approved, then it will be the baseline around which other proposals will pop up.  Every effort should be made by the City to have the future projects coalesce into a developed area with architectural coherency, accessible open space for the public, adequate parking, rationalized (limited) automobile entrances and exits onto the main roads, and an overall sense of community and place.

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This brings up the startling question: is the Old Town Small Area Plan, prepared in 2019, still valid in all respects? Or is the implicit "Mosaic District" model of an "Activity Center" inappropriate for Old Town, with its limited space and constricted road network?  Does the SAP push us toward too much development in Old Town, overloading the road network and the space available?

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​To gather the information needed to plan for the future of Old Town, a detailed aggregate study of all proposed future development needs to be conducted, providing data on square footages, numbers of dwelling units, number of parking spaces (residential and retail), and most of all projected volume of traffic and chokepoints on the road network if we build what is being planned, proposed, or anticipated.  ​​​​

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The City should also conduct a social, economic, and cultural analysis to answer the key questions:  are high density apartment buildings the best way for people to live?  Will another apartment building, one with mostly studio and one-room apartments and a 50% turnover rate of transient residents each year, add to community life in our City?  Will being renters help residents build equity and develop intergenerational wealth, which many experts believe is the key to achieving social equality for most people?  Does this sort of development really generate increased tax revenue for the City or will the cost of increased infrastructure and services (water, sanitary sewer, storm sewer, police and fire coverage, student tuition, etc.) end up driving the City further in debt?  Are high-density "seven-over-one" wooden podium buildings, with their inexpensive construction and short life span, generic "anywhere in the country" appearance, and documented fire hazards (especially with Lithium Ion EVs parked inside them) really what we want for the future in the City of Fairfax? ​

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